Annex: Summaries of presentations by members of the assessment panels and technical options committees*
A. Final assessment by the Methyl Bromide Technical Options Committee of critical-use nomination exemptions for methyl bromide
- On behalf of TEAP, the Methyl Bromide Technical Options Committee co-chairs, Marta Pizano and Ian Porter presented an overview of the trends and outcomes for the CUN nominations submitted in 2021 for use in 2022 and 2023.
- In opening the presentation, Co-chair Ms Marta Pizano reinforced the diversity of technical skills of the MBTOC committee ranging from experts who had skills not only in all aspects of chemical and non-chemical replacements to MB but also pathogen and insect control and knowledge of trade implications and bilateral arrangements for QPS use of methyl bromide. Access to the detailed CUN final report was on the meeting portal website.
- She explained that four CUN nominations had been submitted received this year for preplant soil use of methyl bromide, two from non A5 parties, Canada and Australia and two from an A5 party, Argentina. No submissions were received for Commodity and structural uses.
- An overview of the stock amounts reported by three parties at the end of 2020 showed that no stocks were held by those parties. She reminded parties that MBTOC does not adjust CUE recommendations to account for stocks, if these are reported.
- Ms Pizano then provided and overview of the CUNs submitted in 2021 compared to those with 2020 and explained that all parties had reduced nominations from 80.55 tonnes to 29.107 tonnes, however the reduction needed to take account that the Republic of South Africa had not sought any nominations in this round.
- Ms Pizano then commenced an overview of the outcome of the final assessment for CUE recommendations for all critical uses of MB (t) for 2022 and 2023.
- For the Australian strawberry runners the Party nominated 14.49 tonnes, a 50% reduction on the previous year, stating that they will reduce the licensed amount to 0 tonnes if methyl iodide (MI) is registered and available by 2023. MBTOC accepted that MI was the only alternative for soil treatment to produce all generations of runners and that the party would reduce MB use entirely as per their transition plan.
- Mr. Porter then explained that for Canadian strawberry runners in 2022 the nomination had been reduced by 5% to that in the previous round to 5.017 tonnes to account for uptake of soilless production systems. This was based on MBTOC’s recommendation that soilless production techniques could offset a proportion of MB use for production of G2A-stage tips.
- MBTOC recommended the full amount of 3.70 tonnes for strawberry fruit and 5.90 tonnes for tomato applied for in the nominations from Argentina. MBTOC made this recommendation on the basis that the party had reduced its nominations by 15% over the previous year and was progressing well to phase out MB for these uses.
- He then indicated that no submission was received from RSA due to COVID issues affecting current house sales and the need for MB fumigation in the current year, so the remaining stocks will be used in 2022.
- Mr Porter then highlighted that since 1999, reductions in MB controlled uses (including reductions in the18,600 tonnes to very small amounts (ie 30 t) sought for critical uses in the current round) has led to >30% reduction in the concentration of MB in the atmosphere and this is a key driver for present ozone layer recovery owing to the short shelf life of MB in the atmosphere.
- He stressed however that further reductions in atmospheric levels of MB now rely on reduction of MB emissions from QPS uses, by adopting alternatives and use of recapture and destruction or recapture and reuse of MB, and by preventing non-compliant uses.
- The timelines for submission and evaluation of CUNs in 2020 were shown, as required under Decision Dec XVI/6 1, bii.
B. Assessment by the Scientific Assessment Panel of ozone depletion for 2022
- The Scientific Assessment Panel (SAP) outlined the current status of their work. A major part of the current work is involved in preparation of the 2022 Scientific Assessment of Ozone Depletion. The chapter teams have all prepared detailed first drafts, which were sent out for review, on time, by early October. Responses from the referees are requested by mid-November, after which second drafts will be prepared. Important future milestones include a review meeting in March 2021 and final preparation of the Assessment, including of the Executive Summary, in July. The Assessment is satisfyingly on track.
- The SAP have previously discussed the Report on Unexpected Emissions of CFC-11 (https://ozone.unep.org.science/assessment/sap) at OEWG 43. An update was presented based on a SAP presentation to the Quadrennial Ozone Symposium in October 2021. Analyses of data that have become available recently show that the global atmospheric concentration of CFC-11 continued to drop rapidly through 2020 and the first part of 2021. Global CFC-11 emissions, derived from the atmospheric measurements are even lower than those in 2019, are substantially below 2008-2012 values and are approaching expected levels, suggesting that much of the new use and unreported production has stopped. There remain important questions concerning the magnitudes of the
present-day CFC-11 bank associated with pre-2010 production and the recent unreported emissions.
- Finally, the Antarctic ozone hole of 2021 was discussed. The area of the hole was higher than in some recent years, but not as high as during the period of peak ODS (halogen) loading of the stratosphere in the 1995-2010 period. Temperatures within the Antarctic polar vortex have been lower than average in 2021, conducive to larger ozone depletion. This depletion is consistent with our understanding of the relative roles of meteorological processes and halogen loading in controlling ozone depletion, as has been discussed by SAP previously. The previous 2020 Antarctic hole was of longer duration than normal; there are indications that the same may apply in 2021.
C. 2021 update by the Environmental Effects Assessment Panel on the environmental effects of the interaction between stratospheric ozone depletion, ultraviolet radiation and climate change
- On behalf of EEAP, the Co-chair, Janet Bornman, presented the 2021 Update Assessment on the environmental effects of stratospheric ozone depletion, UV radiation, and interactions with climate change in accordance with the current Terms of Reference.
- The annual EEAP Updates contribute towards the Quadrennial Assessments, providing the latest scientific information of relevance to the Parties. Janet Bornman also referred to the Panel’s ongoing collaboration with WHO and WMO, as well as with TEAP and SAP. The EEAP workplan for the 2022 Quadrennial Assessment was outlined, together with the intended format that will include Summary of highlights, Executive summary, main text, and Frequently Asked Questions (FAQs).
- Highlights of the 2021 Update Assessment included the interactive effects of UV radiation, climate change, and stratospheric ozone depletion in regard to the record duration of the 2020 Antarctic ozone hole and record high UV index. However, the trend of continuing decline in stratospheric ozone depletion during September is still evident. Over the Arctic, the increased depletion of the stratospheric ozone contributed to high spring temperatures in Asia and Europe. It was noted that human-caused (anthropogenic) climate change has the potential to partially counteract the positive effects of the Montreal Protocol on the Arctic ozone layer, according to the recent Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, the IPCC (2021).
- The changes in UV radiation, climate change and stratospheric ozone have a range of adverse consequences for the environment and human health. The severity of these effects has been lessened due to the Montreal Protocol, allowing also for the beneficial effects of exposure to UV radiation – such as for certain immune diseases, including COVID-19. Incidences of skin cancer and eye diseases continue to be of concern.
- The 2021 Update also reported on extreme climate events (ECEs), the severity and frequency of which have been associated with increased global warming from greenhouse gases. ECEs, such as wildfires and catastrophic drought, expose the terrestrial and aquatic environments to additional UV radiation. Consequences of the increased global warming overlain by the ECEs has widespread negative effects for terrestrial and aquatic ecosystems and their biodiversity. An example of a feedback process from ECEs includes increased input of terrestrial runoff (dissolved organic matter, DOM) into water bodies, where UV radiation breaks down the DOM at the surface, leading to the release of greenhouse gases from this DOM, adding to the burden of global warming. However, scientists have warned of the expected large environmental effects from any potential geoengineering of the Earth’s climate to decrease warming.
- UV radiation also plays a role in the breakdown (degradation) of controlled substances and their alternatives. For example, trifluoroacetic acid (TFA), which is a widespread contaminant from the breakdown of HFCs, HCFCs, and HFOs, as well as having natural sources. Recently TFA was detected in surface waters, beer, tea, herbal infusions and indoor dust, but in concentrations well below those that would pose a human health risk.
- The Montreal Protocol has stimulated innovation in a number of sectors. For instance, in the science of protecting natural and synthetic materials (e.g., wood, plastics, textiles), where their outdoor lifetimes are reduced by exposure to UV radiation and weathering. The insertion of stabilisers into materials, including compounds with absorptive or reflective properties, lessens the impact of UV radiation, although this means higher cost of these materials and release of additives into the environment. However, without the Montreal Protocol more degradation by UV radiation would have occurred, resulting in increased use of stabilisers, and concomitant higher cost of materials and greater release of additives into the environment. The breakdown of plastics and other materials by UV radiation, leading to the release of contaminants, carries potential health and environmental risks.
- Lastly, reference was made to a modelling study further emphasising the significance of the Montreal Protocol in protecting plants as important carbon sinks, although the estimations understandably embody high uncertainties.
- Co-Chair Janet Bornman concluded by noting the multiple benefits of the Montreal Protocol by referring to the latter’s ongoing contribution to many of the Sustainable Development Goals.
D. Presentation on the work of the Technology and Economic Assessment Panel and its technical options committees and task forces
- Professor Ashley Woodcock made the presentation on behalf of his co-chairs Bella Maranion and Marta Pizano, and the Technology and Economic Assessment Panel (TEAP) whom he thanked for their dedication and hard work.
- Before making the presentation, he placed on record the gratitude for the heroic efforts of the Ozone Secretariat to ensure continuity of our TEAP work. He also offered thanks and congratulations to the retiring Chief Officer of the MLF Secretariat, Eduardo Ganem, whose generous support and wise guidance, have been invaluable to the TEAP for many years.
- TEAP has 20 members, supported by 5 Technical Options Committees, with over 150 experts from around the world. During 2021, TEAP has provided its annual Progress Report, the Technical Note on the Vaccines Cold Chain, completed its preliminary and final evaluation on Critical Use Nominations for Methyl Bromide, and delivered and presented three Task Force reports
- He outlined some of the challenges facing the TEAP in the last year. The COVID pandemic has required Montreal Protocol processes to adapt to on-line meetings. Since TEAP last met in
MOP-31 in Rome in 2019, it has maintained consensus and engagement to deliver 14 reports. TEAP and TOC members are world-leading technical experts in their field. It constantly strives to maintain that level of independent technical and economic expertise for the service of parties. TEAP is also aware of the need to ensure that its membership meets the evolving needs of parties whilst ensuring continuity of its work under the Montreal Protocol. When TEAP meets face to face next year, it is planning discussions on its structure, membership and future directions to present in its 2022 Progress Report.
- Professor Woodcock then moved to describe the sector highlights and emerging issues from the five technical options committees.
- FTOC (Foams) described the continued progress in the adoption of zero- and low-GWP foam blowing agents. Ongoing issues for small and medium enterprises include the cost of HFCs and HFOs/HFCOs, and the safe use of flammable blowing agents. In addition there have been supply chain issues including insufficient capacity for low GWP options, access to raw materials, weather-related disruptions to chemical plants for both low-GWP blowing agents and polyols, and shipping disruptions
- HTOC (Halons) state that although R&D continues, the certification timescales for civil aircraft are long, and it will still be at least several years before any of the fire extinguishing agents currently being evaluated could be in service. There is increasing contamination of recovered halon 1301. To recycle halons to an acceptable level of purity requires distillation, which can introduce further losses. Recycling companies are reporting problems shipping halons across international borders including misclassifying recovered halons as hazardous waste under the Basel Convention. Ship breaking could represent a significant source of halon 1301, but the amount potentially available is still under investigation by the HTOC. Importantly, HTOC believes there is a need for awareness programs to reverse the loss of institutional knowledge on requirements for halon management.
- There has been an unprecedented and precipitate fall in air passengers with the global pandemic, but no decline as yet in atmospheric halon 1301 levels. The decline in atmospheric halon 1301 levels appears to have flattened for the last 5 years, relative to the projected decline in halon 1301 emissions from the HTOC Bank Model.
- MBTOC (Methyl Bromide) reports that there is good progress with critical use nominations (CUNs) now down to less than 70 tonnes/year. However, Article 7 data suggests some parties may not be distinguishing controlled versus uncontrolled use appropriately. MB stocks now dwarf CUNs, and whilst parties with CUNs are mandated to report stocks (about 20 tonnes), parties without CUNs do not report stocks (which may be up to 1500 tonnes, and could be used for controlled uses). Parties may wish to consider the reporting rules on stocks.
- Parties may wish to start to consider Quarantine versus Pre-shipment uses of MB separately. The use of MB for overall QPS use is estimated at 10,000 tonnes (about 150 times more than the CUNs). For pre-shipment, alternatives exist for most uses, because of the lower standard of pest control required. For uses where MB is still essential (eg quarantine), recapture and recycle technologies are now available
- The MCTOC (Medical and Chemical) reports that atmospheric-derived emissions for a range of controlled substances, including e.g., CFC-113/113a, HCFC-132b, -133a, -31, are higher than expected based on reported production. They stated that a clearer understanding of the production of feedstock, intermediates, and by-products, would allow a meaningful analysis of global and regional emissions.
- Global HFC-23 emissions were at their highest in 2018 compared with emissions expected as the by-product of HCFC-22 production. Either planned HFC-23 emissions reductions have not have been fully realized, or alternatively there may be unreported HCFC-22 production.
- An assessment of technologies used for the destruction of controlled substances under decision XXX/6 will be included in MCTOC’s 2022 Assessment Report. MCTOC will also provide an update on issues surrounding the destruction of banks of controlled substances
- The RTOC (Refrigeration, Air Conditioning and Heat Pumps) reported that since the RTOC 2018 Assessment Report, 1 single-component refrigerant and 14 blends have achieved classifications. They also reported that international institutions are working to review the refrigerant charge in different applications, with appropriate safety standards, to allow the use of low GWP flammable refrigerants. The standard for commercial refrigeration was revised upwards for larger charges of flammable refrigerants and is currently being transferred to national standards. Work on the standard for air conditioning and heat pumps is on-going, aimed at increasing the charge per unit room floor area for all flammable refrigerants
- Training in the servicing and maintenance of RACHP equipment to reduce leaks will reduce emissions of high GWP HFCs. Parties attention was drawn to the Vaccine Cold Chain Technical Note on the Ozone secretariat website.
- Professor Woodcock the moved to summarise the key findings for the three task force reports.
- The TEAP Replenishment Task Force presented its updated estimated funding requirement for the 2021-2023 triennium, narrowing the range to approximately US$ 418-780 million from its report last year. This reflects progress on ratifications of the Kigali Amendment: 84 of 144 A5 parties have now ratified, especially the largest consuming party in Group 1. It also reflects progress at the Executive Committee on project approvals and agreements, a business plan now covering the full triennium, and new HFC project preparation cost guidelines. As requested in the decision and for the consideration of parties, RTF estimates also included support for the special needs of low- and very low-volume consuming countries, enabling activities, stand-alone projects, and cost of early activities to avoid the growth of high-GWP HFCs. TEAP sincerely appreciates the work of this two-year Task Force to support parties reaching a decision next year that supports continued, important progress of A5 parties on ODS phaseout and HFC phasedown.
- The TEAP Task force on Unexpected Emissions of CFC-11 found that unreported CFC-11 production and use is indicated from the comparison of inventory-estimated expected CFC-11 emissions with emissions derived from atmospheric measurements. Based on the analysis, emissions from the pre-2010 CFC-11 bank alone could not explain the derived CFC-11 emissions during
2013-2018. Also, unreported CFC-11 production and use would seem to have started in 2007. There was likely a combination of technical and economic reasons for illegal CFC-11 production and the resumption of its use in closed-cell foams.
- The CFC-11 Task Force analysis indicated that the Cumulative unreported CFC-11 production is in the range of 320 to 700 thousand tonnes for the years 2007 to 2019. Assuming that CFC-11 was used in closed-cell foams, this amount of CFC-11 production leads to an increase in the CFC-11 bank of ~300 thousand tonnes. The opportunities to recover CFC-11 are limited to global active banks, mainly insulation foams and to a lesser extent centrifugal chillers. Management of active foam banks at the end-of-life could divert substantial amounts of CFC-11 containing foam wastes away from landfill towards destruction, mitigating emissions.
- MCTOC stated that parties may wish to consider how to generate global data on production by market sector, which is critical to the Montreal Protocol’s ability to answer future questions about emissions discrepancies, as a global check on compliance.
- The TEAP Task Force for the continued provision of information on Energy efficient and Low-GWP technologies (EETF) observed that the demand for cooling is increasing rapidly, which is leading to increasing global warming from both direct and indirect emissions. The Montreal Protocol has already recognised the need to improve the energy efficiency of RACHP equipment during the phaseout of ODS and now the phase-down of high-GWP refrigerants. The EETF observed that there are many opportunities available to improve Energy efficiency while implementing the Protocol’s control measures. These include facilitating the collaboration between Ozone Units and energy departments, encouraging integrated regulations for energy efficiency during HCFC phase-out and HFC phasedown, Improving access to lower GWP/high EE RACHP technologies and preventing the dumping of high GWP/low EE RACHP equipment in A5 parties, together with considering how to assist parties who wish to adopt a ”fast mover” status with synergistic HCFC phase-out/HFC
phase-down with progressive improvement in energy efficiency
- Professor Woodcock introduced the Terms of Reference for the 2022 TEAP Assessment Report, described in Paragraph 6 of Decision 31/2 which states:
“That, in its 2022 report, the [TEAP] should include an assessment and evaluation of the following topics:
- Technical progress in the production and consumption sectors in the transition to technically and economically feasible and sustainable alternatives and practices that minimize or eliminate the use of controlled substances in all sectors;
- The status of banks and stocks of controlled substances and the options available for managing them so as to avoid emissions to the atmosphere;
- Challenges facing all parties to the Montreal Protocol in implementing Montreal Protocol obligations and maintaining the phase-outs already achieved, especially those on substitutes and substitution technologies, including challenges for parties related to feedstock uses and by‑production to prevent emissions, and potential technically and economically feasible options to face those challenges;
- The impact of the phase-out of controlled ozone-depleting substances and the phase‑down of HFCs on sustainable development;
- Technical advancements in developing alternatives to HFCs suitable for usage in countries with high ambient temperatures, particularly with regard to energy efficiency and safety.”
- He ended by stating that TEAP and its TOCS have made progress with advanced planning and organisation, and that the TOCs have begun their work. TEAP is considering the gap between atmospheric-derived emissions and calculated emissions based on Article 7 data to understand the potential challenges facing parties and potential options that might address those challenges. TEAP is anticipating emerging issues for consideration in its Assessment. Finally, TEAP is coordinating with SAP and EEAP on crossover issues for the Assessments, which will then form the basis for the Synthesis Report.
*The summaries are presented as received, without formal editing.