Organizer: NOUs of Bahrain and Kuwait in cooperation with UN Environment and EPEE
Description: Over the last few years, EPEE developed a special tool to analyze the European market response in relation to the application of the EU F-Gas regulation. The so called “GAPOMETER” turned out to be a very useful analytical model providing forecasts of future HFC demand in multi-national and multi-sectoral markets such as in Europe. The tool provided important insights into how a challenging HFC phase down can be achieved. It attracted the attention of UN Environment and some A5 parties since being presented for the first time in margins of MOP-27.
Bahrain and Kuwait, while implementing the ODS Alternatives Survey projects, attempted to build forecasts for the HFCs consuming sectors, especially with the adoption of the Kigali Amendment. However, this turned out to be a quite complicated task given the diversity of applications in each subsector and the wider range of alternatives being offered, especially given the uncertainty about which and when an alternative would be available for high-ambient temperature (HAT) countries in the upcoming years.
The HFCs Outlook model is an attempt by Bahrain and Kuwait to build different realistic scenarios for the use of HFCs in conjunction with the phase-out of HCFCs, primarily over the next decade, for different type of uses and applications. The model that is built in cooperation with UN Environment and EPEE, went into the details of each market subsector in terms of collecting historical data for the bank of equipment over the last 20 years, building estimates of consumption and drawing different scenarios for technology selection over the next 10 years. The process, of building the comprehensive “HFC Outlook Model” required rigorous data collection and validation at country level and a significant amount of software development
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